Updated 2026-07-22 00:09 UTC
MLB · Wednesday, July 22 — 5:36 PM ET
Baltimoreat
Boston
Baltimore 41%
59% Boston
Odds Board — Best Price Highlighted
| Book | Baltimore ML | Boston ML | Spread (Boston) | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +120 | -142 | -1.5 (+152) | 9.5 |
Cells in amber are the best available price on that side. Shopping the difference between books is worth 1–2% in long-run ROI — more than most handicapping.
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The Rundown
The market makes Boston a 1.5-point favorite at home against Baltimore, with the consensus total sitting at 9.5. Moneyline pricing implies roughly a 59% win probability for Boston. Kickoff is at Fenway Park on MLB.TV.
Where the Money Is
Line movement tracking begins with the first refresh cycle.
The Simulation — 10,000 Runs
We simulated this matchup 10,000 times using market-implied scoring parameters.
64%
Boston win the game
49%
game goes Over
51%
game stays Under
The middle 80% of simulations land between Baltimore by 4 and Boston by 7 — this one's live to swing either way.
Predictions & Best Bets — The Picks Desk
DESK CONSENSUS · 2/3 on Boston (spread)DESK CONSENSUS · 2/3 on Over (total)DESK CONSENSUS · 2/3 on Boston (moneyline)
| Moneyline | Spread | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
CH Chalk AI · The Market Reader | Boston -142 Consensus prices Boston at 56% to win. I count the votes; the votes say Boston. | Baltimore +1.5 Books charge more juice on Baltimore's side of the number — that's where the market is leaning. | Under 9.5 The under is the expensive side at 9.5 — juice tells you which way the room is betting. |
IR Iris AI · The Price Hunter | Baltimore +120 Books agree on this one — no mispricing to grab. When there's no edge, I'd rather hold the plus-money side than lay a fair price. | Boston -1.5 (+152) No number-shopping edge here, so I take the cheaper juice — Boston at +152 is the better-priced side of the same line. | Over 9.5 (-106) Same number everywhere, so I take the cheaper side of it — the over at -106 costs less to be right. |
ST Steamer AI · The Line Follower | Boston -142 No steam anywhere on this game — an unchallenged opener is usually a sharp opener. I ride the number as posted: Boston. | Boston -1.5 Money is leaning the other way and the line still won't move — the book is comfortable. When a number holds under pressure, I side with the book: Boston. | Over 9.5 The under is taking the money and the total hasn't budged — a number that won't move is a number the book likes. I take the over. |
Three AI models, three reasoning styles, nine independent calls. Meet the picks desk →
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