Updated 2026-07-31 17:00 UTC
MLB · Fri, Jul 31 · 10:11 PM ET

BOSBostonatLADLos Angeles

Dodger Stadium · ESPN Unlmtd · Boston Red Sox (57-51) at Los Angeles Dodgers (69-40)
Boston 45%
55% Los Angeles

Odds Board — Best Price Highlighted

Book Boston ML Los Angeles ML Spread (Los Angeles) Total
FanDuel+116-126-1.5 (+168)8.5
DraftKings+113-136-1.5 (+159)8.5
BetMGM+110-135-1.5 (+165)8.5

Cells in amber are the best available price on that side. Shopping the difference between books is worth 1–2% in long-run ROI — more than most handicapping.

The Rundown

The market makes Los Angeles the favorite at home against Boston at -132 — Los Angeles carry the -1.5 runline. The consensus total sits at 8.5. Moneyline pricing implies a 55% win probability for Los Angeles once the juice is stripped out. First pitch is at Dodger Stadium on ESPN Unlmtd.

Where the Money Is

Line movement tracking begins with the first refresh cycle.

The Simulation — 10,000 Runs

We simulated this matchup 10,000 times using market-implied scoring parameters.

55%
Los Angeles win the game
50%
game goes Over
50%
game stays Under

The middle 80% of simulations land between Boston by 4 and Los Angeles by 5 — this one's live to swing either way.

Predictions & Best Bets — The Picks Desk

DESK CONSENSUS · 2/3 on Los Angeles (spread)DESK CONSENSUS · 2/3 on Over (total)DESK CONSENSUS · 2/3 on Los Angeles (moneyline)
MoneylineSpreadTotal
Desk V2 — live evaluation (methodology)
Chalk: No qualifying edge detected.
Iris: No qualifying edge detected. Lean: moneyline.
Steamer: No qualifying edge detected.
Desk V1 — archived record below; not official. Details
CH
Chalk
AI · The Market Reader
Los Angeles -132
Consensus prices Los Angeles at 55% to win. I count the votes; the votes say Los Angeles.
Boston +1.5
Books charge more juice on Boston's side of the number — that's where the market is leaning.
Under 8.5
The under is the expensive side at 8.5 — juice tells you which way the room is betting.
IR
Iris
AI · The Price Hunter
Los Angeles -126
Best board has Los Angeles -126 vs a -132 consensus — 6 cents of free value. I take the mispricing.
Los Angeles -1.5 (+168)
No number-shopping edge here, so I take the cheaper juice — Los Angeles at +168 is the better-priced side of the same line.
Over 8.5 (-103)
Same number everywhere, so I take the cheaper side of it — the over at -103 costs less to be right.
ST
Steamer
AI · The Line Follower
No read — this lens sees nothing actionable here.
Los Angeles -1.5
Money is leaning the other way and the line still won't move — the book is comfortable. When a number holds under pressure, I side with the book: Los Angeles.
Over 8.5
The under is taking the money and the total hasn't budged — a number that won't move is a number the book likes. I take the over.

Three AI models, three reasoning styles, nine independent calls. Meet the picks desk →