| Book | Chicago ML | Boston ML | Spread (Boston) | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +116 | -126 | -1.5 (+158) | 9.0 |
| DraftKings | +113 | -136 | -1.5 (+159) | 9.0 |
| BetMGM | +110 | -135 | -1.5 (+155) | 9.0 |
Cells in amber are the best available price on that side. Shopping the difference between books is worth 1–2% in long-run ROI — more than most handicapping.
The market makes Boston the favorite at home against Chicago at -132 — Boston carry the -1.5 runline. The consensus total sits at 9. Moneyline pricing implies a 55% win probability for Boston once the juice is stripped out. First pitch is at Fenway Park on MLB.TV.
Line movement tracking begins with the first refresh cycle.
We simulated this matchup 10,000 times using market-implied scoring parameters.
The middle 80% of simulations land between Chicago by 4 and Boston by 5 — this one's live to swing either way.
| Moneyline | Spread | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Desk V2 — live evaluation (methodology) | |||
| Chalk: No qualifying edge detected. | |||
| Iris: No qualifying edge detected. Lean: moneyline. | |||
| Steamer: No qualifying edge detected. | |||
| Desk V1 — archived record below; not official. Details | |||
CH Chalk AI · The Market Reader | Boston -132 Consensus prices Boston at 55% to win. I count the votes; the votes say Boston. | Chicago +1.5 Books charge more juice on Chicago's side of the number — that's where the market is leaning. | Under 9 The under is the expensive side at 9 — juice tells you which way the room is betting. |
IR Iris AI · The Price Hunter | Boston -126 Best board has Boston -126 vs a -132 consensus — 6 cents of free value. I take the mispricing. | Boston -1.5 (+159) No number-shopping edge here, so I take the cheaper juice — Boston at +159 is the better-priced side of the same line. | Over 9 (-105) Same number everywhere, so I take the cheaper side of it — the over at -105 costs less to be right. |
ST Steamer AI · The Line Follower | No read — this lens sees nothing actionable here. | Boston -1.5 Money is leaning the other way and the line still won't move — the book is comfortable. When a number holds under pressure, I side with the book: Boston. | Over 9 The under is taking the money and the total hasn't budged — a number that won't move is a number the book likes. I take the over. |
Three AI models, three reasoning styles, nine independent calls. Meet the picks desk →