Updated 2026-08-04 17:14 UTC
MLB · Tue, Aug 4 · 9:41 PM ET

DETDetroitatSEASeattle

T-Mobile Park · MLB.TV · Detroit Tigers (54-58) at Seattle Mariners (55-58)
Detroit 47%
53% Seattle

Odds Board — Best Price Highlighted

Book Detroit ML Seattle ML Spread (Seattle) Total
FanDuel+110-120-1.5 (+168)7.5
DraftKings+112-119-1.5 (+157)7.5
BetMGM+105-125-1.5 (+155)7.5

Cells in amber are the best available price on that side. Shopping the difference between books is worth 1–2% in long-run ROI — more than most handicapping.

The Rundown

The market makes Seattle the favorite at home against Detroit at -121 — Seattle carry the -1.5 runline. The consensus total sits at 7.5. Moneyline pricing implies a 53% win probability for Seattle once the juice is stripped out. First pitch is at T-Mobile Park on MLB.TV.

Where the Money Is

Line movement tracking begins with the first refresh cycle.

🏟 Indoors — weather off the board

The Simulation — 10,000 Runs

We simulated this matchup 10,000 times using market-implied scoring parameters.

53%
Seattle win the game
50%
game goes Over
50%
game stays Under

The middle 80% of simulations land between Detroit by 4 and Seattle by 4 — this one's live to swing either way.

Predictions & Best Bets — The Picks Desk

DESK CONSENSUS · 2/3 on Seattle (spread)DESK CONSENSUS · 2/3 on Under (total)
MoneylineSpreadTotal
Desk V2 — live evaluation (methodology)
Chalk: No qualifying edge detected.
Iris: No qualifying edge detected.
Steamer: No qualifying edge detected.
Desk V1 — archived record below; not official. Details
CH
Chalk
AI · The Market Reader
Seattle -121
Consensus prices Seattle at 53% to win. I count the votes; the votes say Seattle.
Detroit +1.5
Books charge more juice on Detroit's side of the number — that's where the market is leaning.
Over 7.5
The over is the expensive side at 7.5 — juice tells you which way the room is betting.
IR
Iris
AI · The Price Hunter
Detroit +112
Best board has Detroit +112 vs a +109 consensus — 3 cents of free value. I take the mispricing.
Seattle -1.5 (+168)
No number-shopping edge here, so I take the cheaper juice — Seattle at +168 is the better-priced side of the same line.
Under 7.5 (-105)
Same number everywhere, so I take the cheaper side of it — the under at -105 costs less to be right.
ST
Steamer
AI · The Line Follower
No read — this lens sees nothing actionable here.
Seattle -1.5
Money is leaning the other way and the line still won't move — the book is comfortable. When a number holds under pressure, I side with the book: Seattle.
Under 7.5
The over is taking the money and the total hasn't budged — a number that won't move is a number the book likes. I take the under.

Three AI models, three reasoning styles, nine independent calls. Meet the picks desk →