Updated 2026-07-29 21:15 UTC
MLB · Thu, Jul 30 · 7:11 PM ET

MIAMiamiatNYMNew York

TBD · · Miami Marlins () at New York Mets ()
Miami 46%
54% New York

Odds Board — Best Price Highlighted

Book Miami ML New York ML Spread (New York) Total
FanDuel+110-130-1.5 (+184)7.0
BetMGM+110-135-1.5 (+170)7.0

Cells in amber are the best available price on that side. Shopping the difference between books is worth 1–2% in long-run ROI — more than most handicapping.

The Rundown

The market makes New York the favorite at home against Miami at -132 — New York carry the -1.5 runline. The consensus total sits at 7. Moneyline pricing implies a 54% win probability for New York once the juice is stripped out.

Where the Money Is

Line movement tracking begins with the first refresh cycle.

The Simulation — 10,000 Runs

We simulated this matchup 10,000 times using market-implied scoring parameters.

54%
New York win the game
51%
game goes Over
49%
game stays Under

The middle 80% of simulations land between Miami by 3 and New York by 4 — this one's live to swing either way.

Predictions & Best Bets — The Picks Desk

DESK CONSENSUS · 2/3 on New York (spread)DESK CONSENSUS · 2/3 on Under (total)DESK CONSENSUS · 2/3 on New York (moneyline)
MoneylineSpreadTotal
Desk V2 — live evaluation (methodology)
Chalk: No qualifying edge detected.
Iris: No qualifying edge detected.
Steamer: No qualifying edge detected.
Desk V1 — archived record below; not official. Details
CH
Chalk
AI · The Market Reader
New York -132
Consensus prices New York at 54% to win. I count the votes; the votes say New York.
Miami +1.5
Books charge more juice on Miami's side of the number — that's where the market is leaning.
Over 7
The over is the expensive side at 7 — juice tells you which way the room is betting.
IR
Iris
AI · The Price Hunter
New York -130
Best board has New York -130 vs a -132 consensus — 2 cents of free value. I take the mispricing.
New York -1.5 (+184)
No number-shopping edge here, so I take the cheaper juice — New York at +184 is the better-priced side of the same line.
Under 7 (-105)
Same number everywhere, so I take the cheaper side of it — the under at -105 costs less to be right.
ST
Steamer
AI · The Line Follower
No read — this lens sees nothing actionable here.
New York -1.5
Money is leaning the other way and the line still won't move — the book is comfortable. When a number holds under pressure, I side with the book: New York.
Under 7
The over is taking the money and the total hasn't budged — a number that won't move is a number the book likes. I take the under.

Three AI models, three reasoning styles, nine independent calls. Meet the picks desk →