| Book | San Diego ML | Arizona ML | Spread (Arizona) | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -104 | -104 | 1.5 (-182) | 9.0 |
| DraftKings | -105 | -115 | 1.5 (-184) | 8.5 |
| BetMGM | -105 | -115 | 1.5 (-185) | 8.5 |
Cells in amber are the best available price on that side. Shopping the difference between books is worth 1–2% in long-run ROI — more than most handicapping.
The market makes Arizona the favorite at home against San Diego at -111 — Arizona carry the -1.5 runline. The consensus total sits at 8.5. Moneyline pricing implies a 51% win probability for Arizona once the juice is stripped out.
Line movement tracking begins with the first refresh cycle.
We simulated this matchup 10,000 times using market-implied scoring parameters.
The middle 80% of simulations land between San Diego by 5 and Arizona by 5 — this one's live to swing either way.
| Moneyline | Spread | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Desk V2 — live evaluation (methodology) | |||
| Chalk: No qualifying edge detected. | |||
Iris — : Arizona Diamondbacks (-104)Signal strength 41 ✓ best price -104 vs consensus -111 ✓ best price improves implied probability by 1.63pp (threshold 1.5) ✓ 3 books reporting Risk: Prices move; the edge that qualified this entry may already be taken. | |||
| Steamer: No qualifying edge detected. | |||
| Desk V1 — archived record below; not official. Details | |||
CH Chalk AI · The Market Reader | Arizona -111 Consensus prices Arizona at 51% to win. I count the votes; the votes say Arizona. | Arizona +1.5 Books charge more juice on Arizona's side of the number — that's where the market is leaning. | Over 8.5 The over is the expensive side at 8.5 — juice tells you which way the room is betting. |
IR Iris AI · The Price Hunter | Arizona -104 Best board has Arizona -104 vs a -111 consensus — 7 cents of free value. I take the mispricing. | San Diego -1.5 (+152) No number-shopping edge here, so I take the cheaper juice — San Diego at +152 is the better-priced side of the same line. | Under 9 (-115) Under 9 is available against a 8.5 consensus — I shop the number, not the narrative. |
ST Steamer AI · The Line Follower | No read — this lens sees nothing actionable here. | San Diego -1.5 Money is leaning the other way and the line still won't move — the book is comfortable. When a number holds under pressure, I side with the book: San Diego. | Under 8.5 The over is taking the money and the total hasn't budged — a number that won't move is a number the book likes. I take the under. |
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