| Book | San Francisco ML | Texas ML | Spread (Texas) | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +100 | -108 | 1.5 (-196) | 8.0 |
| DraftKings | -110 | -109 | 1.5 (-186) | 8.0 |
| BetMGM | -110 | -110 | 1.5 (-190) | 8.0 |
Cells in amber are the best available price on that side. Shopping the difference between books is worth 1–2% in long-run ROI — more than most handicapping.
The market makes Texas the favorite at home against San Francisco at -109 — Texas carry the -1.5 runline. The consensus total sits at 8. Moneyline pricing implies a 50% win probability for Texas once the juice is stripped out.
Line movement tracking begins with the first refresh cycle.
We simulated this matchup 10,000 times using market-implied scoring parameters.
The middle 80% of simulations land between San Francisco by 4 and Texas by 4 — this one's live to swing either way.
| Moneyline | Spread | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Desk V2 — live evaluation (methodology) | |||
| Chalk: No qualifying edge detected. | |||
Iris — : San Francisco Giants (+100)Signal strength 42 ✓ best price +100 vs consensus -107 ✓ best price improves implied probability by 1.69pp (threshold 1.5) ✓ 3 books reporting Risk: Prices move; the edge that qualified this entry may already be taken. | |||
| Steamer: No qualifying edge detected. | |||
| Desk V1 — archived record below; not official. Details | |||
CH Chalk AI · The Market Reader | Texas -109 Consensus prices Texas at 50% to win. I count the votes; the votes say Texas. | Texas +1.5 Books charge more juice on Texas's side of the number — that's where the market is leaning. | Over 8 The over is the expensive side at 8 — juice tells you which way the room is betting. |
IR Iris AI · The Price Hunter | San Francisco +100 Best board has San Francisco +100 vs a -107 consensus — 207 cents of free value. I take the mispricing. | San Francisco -1.5 (+162) No number-shopping edge here, so I take the cheaper juice — San Francisco at +162 is the better-priced side of the same line. | Under 8 (-104) Same number everywhere, so I take the cheaper side of it — the under at -104 costs less to be right. |
ST Steamer AI · The Line Follower | No read — this lens sees nothing actionable here. | San Francisco -1.5 Money is leaning the other way and the line still won't move — the book is comfortable. When a number holds under pressure, I side with the book: San Francisco. | Under 8 The over is taking the money and the total hasn't budged — a number that won't move is a number the book likes. I take the under. |
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