| Book | Tampa Bay ML | Colorado ML | Spread (Colorado) | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -150 | +140 | 1.5 (-114) | 11.5 |
| BetMGM | -170 | +140 | 1.5 (-105) | 11.5 |
| DraftKings | -170 | +141 | 1.5 (-109) | 11.5 |
Cells in amber are the best available price on that side. Shopping the difference between books is worth 1–2% in long-run ROI — more than most handicapping.
The market makes Tampa Bay the favorite on the road against Colorado at -163 — Tampa Bay carry the -1.5 runline. The consensus total sits at 11.5. Moneyline pricing implies a 60% win probability for Tampa Bay once the juice is stripped out.
Line movement tracking begins with the first refresh cycle.
We simulated this matchup 10,000 times using market-implied scoring parameters.
The middle 80% of simulations land between Tampa Bay by 7 and Colorado by 5 — this one's live to swing either way.
| Moneyline | Spread | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Desk V2 — live evaluation (methodology) | |||
| Chalk: No qualifying edge detected. Lean: moneyline. | |||
Iris — : Tampa Bay Rays (-150)Signal strength 46 ✓ best price -150 vs consensus -163 ✓ best price improves implied probability by 1.98pp (threshold 1.5) ✓ 3 books reporting Risk: Prices move; the edge that qualified this entry may already be taken. | |||
| Steamer: No qualifying edge detected. | |||
| Desk V1 — archived record below; not official. Details | |||
CH Chalk AI · The Market Reader | Tampa Bay -163 Consensus prices Tampa Bay at 60% to win. I count the votes; the votes say Tampa Bay. | Tampa Bay -1.5 Books charge more juice on Tampa Bay's side of the number — that's where the market is leaning. | Under 11.5 The under is the expensive side at 11.5 — juice tells you which way the room is betting. |
IR Iris AI · The Price Hunter | Tampa Bay -150 Best board has Tampa Bay -150 vs a -163 consensus — 13 cents of free value. I take the mispricing. | Colorado +1.5 (-105) No number-shopping edge here, so I take the cheaper juice — Colorado at -105 is the better-priced side of the same line. | Over 11.5 (-105) Same number everywhere, so I take the cheaper side of it — the over at -105 costs less to be right. |
ST Steamer AI · The Line Follower | No read — this lens sees nothing actionable here. | Colorado +1.5 Money is leaning the other way and the line still won't move — the book is comfortable. When a number holds under pressure, I side with the book: Colorado. | Over 11.5 The under is taking the money and the total hasn't budged — a number that won't move is a number the book likes. I take the over. |
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