| Book | Toronto ML | Houston ML | Spread (Houston) | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +113 | -136 | -1.5 (+144) | 9.0 |
| BetMGM | +110 | -135 | -1.5 (+145) | 9.0 |
| FanDuel | +116 | -126 | -1.5 (+160) | 9.0 |
Cells in amber are the best available price on that side. Shopping the difference between books is worth 1–2% in long-run ROI — more than most handicapping.
The market makes Houston the favorite at home against Toronto at -132 — Houston carry the -1.5 runline. The consensus total sits at 9. Moneyline pricing implies a 55% win probability for Houston once the juice is stripped out.
Line movement tracking begins with the first refresh cycle.
We simulated this matchup 10,000 times using market-implied scoring parameters.
The middle 80% of simulations land between Toronto by 4 and Houston by 5 — this one's live to swing either way.
| Moneyline | Spread | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Desk V2 — live evaluation (methodology) | |||
| Chalk: No qualifying edge detected. | |||
| Iris: No qualifying edge detected. Lean: moneyline. | |||
| Steamer: No qualifying edge detected. | |||
| Desk V1 — archived record below; not official. Details | |||
CH Chalk AI · The Market Reader | Houston -132 Consensus prices Houston at 55% to win. I count the votes; the votes say Houston. | Toronto +1.5 Books charge more juice on Toronto's side of the number — that's where the market is leaning. | Over 9 The over is the expensive side at 9 — juice tells you which way the room is betting. |
IR Iris AI · The Price Hunter | Houston -126 Best board has Houston -126 vs a -132 consensus — 6 cents of free value. I take the mispricing. | Houston -1.5 (+160) No number-shopping edge here, so I take the cheaper juice — Houston at +160 is the better-priced side of the same line. | Under 9 (-105) Same number everywhere, so I take the cheaper side of it — the under at -105 costs less to be right. |
ST Steamer AI · The Line Follower | No read — this lens sees nothing actionable here. | Houston -1.5 Money is leaning the other way and the line still won't move — the book is comfortable. When a number holds under pressure, I side with the book: Houston. | Under 9 The over is taking the money and the total hasn't budged — a number that won't move is a number the book likes. I take the under. |
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