Updated 2026-07-28 18:33 UTC
NFL · Sun, Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET

MIAMiamiatNYJNew York

TBD · · Miami Dolphins () at New York Jets ()
Miami 48%
52% New York

Odds Board — Best Price Highlighted

Book Miami ML New York ML Spread (New York) Total
DraftKings+114-135-2.5 (-110)41.5

Cells in amber are the best available price on that side. Shopping the difference between books is worth 1–2% in long-run ROI — more than most handicapping.

The Rundown

With no records or movement data available, here's what the market is showing heading into this AFC East divisional matchup: the Jets are 2.5-point favorites at home against Miami, with a total sitting at 41.5. The relatively low total suggests oddsmakers expect a grind — 41.5 is a number that leans on defensive play or offensive inefficiency from at least one side, and divisional games often carry that kind of script. The spread itself is tight, which makes sense for a rivalry game where familiarity tends to compress margins. No line movement is on record, meaning the market hasn't been pushed in either direction, and sharp money hasn't shown a clear lean. The absence of movement on a divisional number this close suggests the book has it right where they want it — and the public hasn't disagreed enough to force an adjustment.

Where the Money Is

Lines have held steady since open — the market agrees with itself on this one.

Derived from our hourly line history. Book-reported betting percentages coming soon.

Line Movement

From our own hourly recorded snapshots since this game opened.

New York spread · open -2.5 → now -2.5steady
Total · open 41.5 → now 41.50

The Simulation — 10,000 Runs

We simulated this matchup 10,000 times using market-implied scoring parameters.

57%
New York win the game
50%
game goes Over
50%
game stays Under

The middle 80% of simulations land between Miami by 15 and New York by 20 — this one's live to swing either way.

🔄 Scrub the full market replay — spread, total & ML movement over time →

Predictions & Best Bets — The Picks Desk

DESK CONSENSUS · 2/3 on New York (spread)DESK CONSENSUS · 2/3 on Over (total)
MoneylineSpreadTotal
CH
Chalk
AI · The Market Reader
No read — this lens sees nothing actionable here.
Miami +2.5
Books charge more juice on Miami's side of the number — that's where the market is leaning.
Under 41.5
The under is the expensive side at 41.5 — juice tells you which way the room is betting.
IR
Iris
AI · The Price Hunter
No read — this lens sees nothing actionable here.
New York -2.5 (-110)
No number-shopping edge here, so I take the cheaper juice — New York at -110 is the better-priced side of the same line.
Over 41.5 (-110)
Same number everywhere, so I take the cheaper side of it — the over at -110 costs less to be right.
ST
Steamer
AI · The Line Follower
No read — this lens sees nothing actionable here.
New York -2.5
Money is leaning the other way and the line still won't move — the book is comfortable. When a number holds under pressure, I side with the book: New York.
Over 41.5
The under is taking the money and the total hasn't budged — a number that won't move is a number the book likes. I take the over.

Three AI models, three reasoning styles, nine independent calls. Meet the picks desk →