Liz Loza's six favorite fantasy football draft fliers: Tyler Shough leads the way

Late-round picks are where fantasy championships are quietly built, and with training camps sorting themselves out across the league, the flier market is starting to take shape for the 2025 season. Liz Loza, one of the more respected analysts in the fantasy space, has zeroed in on six names she believes carry genuine upside relative to their draft-day cost, with Tyler Shough headlining the group. Shough, who has bounced around the college ranks and spent time developing on NFL rosters, represents the kind of high-ceiling, low-floor gamble that late rounds are designed for — a player who costs almost nothing but could return significant value if circumstances break his way.

The reason this kind of analysis matters beyond fantasy circles is that fantasy relevance and betting markets are more connected than casual observers might assume. Players who start appearing on analysts' radar screens in August tend to attract real money in prop markets before the season begins, and a groundswell of attention around a guy like Shough can shift his touchdown and yardage props meaningfully before the public fully catches on. The window between when sharp analysts identify a breakout candidate and when the broader betting market prices that upside in is often where the value lives.

From a lines perspective, preseason buzz around low-profile quarterbacks and skill players tends to move futures and season-long win totals only marginally on its own, but it can have a more pronounced effect on individual player props. If Shough, for example, is competing for a starting role or positioned as a high-upside backup on a pass-heavy offense, his passing yards and touchdown props may open at floors set by oddsmakers who haven't fully factored in recent camp reporting or analyst consensus. The same principle applies to the other names on Loza's list — when multiple credible voices start converging on the same sleepers, sportsbooks pay attention, but there's often a short lag before lines adjust. Acting on player props before that consensus fully forms is one of the cleaner edges available in the early-season betting market.

The follow-on questions to track here are straightforward but critical. First, watch for depth chart news out of training camp — flier value evaporates immediately if a player gets passed on the roster. Second, monitor injury reports for the players ahead of these targets, since the entire premise of a late-round dart is opportunity. Finally, keep an eye on how the props open once oddsmakers post them in late August. If a name Loza is high on opens with a receiving yards total that doesn't reflect their potential role, that discrepancy is worth noting before Week 1 kickoff.

Reporting via ESPN. Analysis by the 4th & Value desk.